Sharp or Square

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dive into their betting results from NFL Week 9, checking in on the gambling action after a tremendous Sunday of NFL action. Plus, we get all their early NFL Week 10 picks, predictions, best bets and leans. Games recapped today include a thriller between Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears and Joe Flacco’s Cincinnati Bengals, Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos vs. an injured C.J. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dive into their betting results from NFL Week 10, checking in on the gambling action after a tremendous Sunday of NFL action. Plus, we get all their early NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, best bets and leans.

Orifice Plate with Vent and Drain Holes

• Square money refers to bets placed by casual or recreational bettors.
• Some beginner bettors get excited and start blindly fading the public.
• After discussing the ramifications within and beyond the sports betting universe, they also deep dive into their best bets for NFL Week 8.
• Tennessee has negative net yards per play but has overachieved relative to their metrics to this point.
• A steam move is when a line shifts quickly across multiple sportsbooks at once.

In plainer terms, the betting line shifts against the side getting the majority of bets. If a key slugger is scratched and the under moves half a run, it might be smart money reacting. Other times, the market barely moves despite changes—often because sharps already built in the possibility. To sharpen your judgment, it helps to monitor latest MLB news, especially around pitching changes, injury updates, or lineup adjustments.

If that didn’t turn out to be the case, big-money players wouldn’t exist. For you as a bettor, understanding this dynamic explains why “fading the public” (betting against what the masses are doing) has a reputation as a winning strategy. Sportsbooks largely profit from the public, so going the opposite way of heavy public bets often aligns you with the house and (hopefully) the sharps. So, books generally encourage square action (ever notice all the promos boosting parlays and “risk-free” bets on public-favorite games?). Reverse Line Movement is one of the clearest indicators of sharp action. It means the line moves opposite to the direction we’d expect from public betting%.

In this case, since 70% of the bets are on the Chiefs but 60% is on the Ravens, we can deduce that the public is betting on Kansas City but sharps are targeting Baltimore. As such, we should probably be leaning a bit more towards online casino license curacao the Ravens. We save you time each week by “handicapping and the handicappers” and curating for you the very best bets from the most prominent, sharp media personalities in the country. And if you’re looking to sharpen your edge further, don’t miss our NBA 2025 playoff recap, where we break down which teams outperformed expectations and why—insights you can carry into next season’s betting. You’ll start to get a feel for how the market reacts to sharp and square money—and how you can ride along with the sharper side when it makes sense.

Sharp bettors often react to this information well before the general public, and markets move accordingly. If you spot a line shifting minutes after breaking news hits trusted sources, chances are you’re seeing a reaction to sharp activity. That’s why staying ahead of the public narrative and aligning your analysis with real-time updates can reveal where the value lies. Learn how to turn projected stats into smarter bets with research tools designed for prop betting. Discover how basketball player prop tools help you find data edges and help improve your NBA prop betting strategy. Learn how to use this powerful metric to find smarter bets and boost your long-term edge.

It can help you offset the house edge and be successful in the long run. This betting guide explains what is sharp betting and how beginners can join their ranks. Other square-edged orifice plates exist to address conditions where gas bubbles or solid particles may be present in liquid flows, or where liquid droplets or solid particles may be present in gas flows. There is a sharp versus square angle to consider ahead of this crucial AFC matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Indianapolis Colts. The majority of bets are coming in on the under, but sharp money likes the over. Miami is drawing just 37% of bets, leaving 63% of wagers coming in on Tennessee’s side; however, 98% of actual dollars wagered have been on the Fins.

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Sharps wager large amounts but do so via smaller bets at a variety of sportsbooks. In order to fly under the radar, and not draw attention from bookmakers, sharps may have a crew of money runners (beards) who place their wagers. Sharps are proactive and use sophisticated algorithms to forecast betting odds on a variety of contests before sportsbooks post their prices.

Sharp bettors see things otherwise, recognizing their Week 17 matchup as nothing more than an opportunity for the Texans to fall flat on their faces. But you might also expand that to include those who demonstrate the characteristics of pros as well, even though they don’t do it as a full-time endeavor. That is to say, they may not be heavily bankrolled, but they are fundamentally sound in their approach. We’re not sure it’s going to be the determinant factor in your success in NFL betting, but it probably matters in terms of where you can play, concerning the online sportsbooks.

Rather, they round off into a curved line, giving the entire shape a more circular feel. Because sharp corners draw a distinction between an element and its surroundings, this helps the container stand out from the background. The rounded corners of the container on the right draw the eye toward the center of the container, distracting the viewer from each card as an individual. The rounded cards (right) are a little easier on the eyes and have better visual separation.

In the world of sports betting, especially baseball, the terms “sharps” and “squares” are more than labels. They represent two very different types of betting behavior that move the market in distinct ways. Betting sharp is contingent on reacting promptly to the opening odds. Expert punters know how to spot inaccuracies before the market adjusts and lock in on maximum value. The sharp vs square betting difference is most acute in this stage,as casual customers begin to place their wagers after the initial sharp bettor money has created a reaction in the sportsbook.

Positive Expected Value Explained: How to Find Positive EV Edges in Sports Betting

In the world of NFL betting, the terms “sharp money” and “square money” are often used to describe different types of bettors and the influence they have on betting markets. Understanding the distinction between these two groups can provide valuable insights into predicting line movement and identifying profitable betting opportunities. In this article, we will explain the differences between sharp and square money and how recognizing their impact can enhance your NFL betting strategy — and how you can best “fade the public” in the NFL. Over the years, reverse line movement has been one of the best sharp money indicators in the NFL. Reverse-line movement refers to betting line movement that contradicts the public betting percentages.

Success in NFL betting is not about winning every bet but about consistently finding value and making profitable decisions over time. This requires discipline, research and a willingness to pass on bets that don’t offer a clear edge. Again, data driven resources like Portfolio EV operate under a long-term model, so by using bets in these tools, you are using sharp betting strategy. Square money, particularly in high-profile games, can also move lines, but often in a direction that benefits sharp bettors. For example, if squares heavily bet a popular team, the line may shift to favor its opponent, which creates value for sharps who take advantage of the inflated odds.

In the 2025 Super Bowl between the Chiefs and Eagles, for example, the Eagles were initially set as +2.5 point underdogs. That line moved down to a pick ’em (meaning no team was favored) by kickoff because sharps were betting on the Eagles and the sportsbooks wanted to entice public bettors to back the Chiefs. Through their years of networking, sharp bettors, like the sportsbooks, also use inside information to inform their bets. So if a starting quarterback is questionable for a game but a sharp knows they are going to play, they can use that information to get a favorable line.

If you missed the early move, look for sudden shifts one hour before first pitch. These may suggest late sharp buy-ins, especially if the line doesn’t reflect public sentiment. For example, if sharps bet on a +130 underdog that moves to +110, and the public follows, you’re now laying a bet with thinner margins. It’s not unwise to still play it, but the edge has diminished.

What that chart is looking at above would be your 20 “sharpest” and “squarest” plays on the board for a given event over a 30-tournament sample size in 2025. Anything in yellow just means a tournament didn’t have a cut that week. “Finish” would be the place a golfer came in on the leaderboard for the week. “Average Finish” would be the average position all players landed.

Recognizing these rare moments when sharps and squares overlap can help you act fast and secure the best number. Suppose the sharp model shows value on a team with an underrated starter, and squares are drawn to that team due to recent headlines. Expert reviews & comparisons of 30+ sports betting tools that help you find your edge & bet smarter.